Forecast of Russian socio-economic development
This section contains forecasts of basic indicators reflecting the state of the Russian economy in the medium term. The forecasts have been developed by leading Russian and international analytical teams.
Update date:
GDP Growth, %
2025 to the previous year
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VEB.RF
2,6
Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of science
1,2
OECD
1,0
Ministry of Economic Development
1,0
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation survey
1,0
World Bank, WB
0,9
Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecast
0,8
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
0,8
International Monetary Fund, IMF
0,6
The main factor of GDP growth in the medium term will be domestic demand. The development trajectory in 2026-2028 will be largely determined by the effective implementation of economic policy measures, primarily the implementation of approved National Projects, and a balanced budget policy. As well as through a balanced monetary policy that takes into account, along with the inflation target, the need for financial resources for economic development. As a result, GDP will increase by 1.3% in 2026, by 2.8% and 2.5% per year in 2027 and 2028, respectively. By the end of 2028, GDP will exceed the level of 2024 by 7.9%, amounting in nominal terms to more than 276 trillion rubles.
The GDP growth rate will slow down to 1.0 – 2.0% in 2025 and to 0.5 – 1.5% in 2026. The share of investments in GDP will remain at the high level achieved in 2023-2024. The contribution of consumer demand to GDP dynamics in 2026-2027 will grow as interest rates decrease and the economy returns to a balanced growth trajectory. In the baseline scenario, the Russian economy is expected to reach potential growth rates of 1.5 – 2.5% in 2027.
Inflation rate, %
December to previous year December
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OECD
8,5
International Monetary Fund, IMF
7,6
Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecast
6,8
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
6,8
Ministry of Economic Development
6,8
Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of science
6,7
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation survey
6,6
VEB.RF
5,3
A steady downward trend in inflation expectations has not yet emerged. Long-term expectations calculated from financial market instruments have slightly decreased. The inflation expectations of professional analysts and the public have not changed significantly. Business price expectations increased slightly in July for the first time since the beginning of the year. Overall, inflation expectations remain elevated. This may prevent a more sustained slowdown in inflation.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Investment growth in fixed capital, %
2025 to the previous year
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VEB.RF
1,9
Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecast
1,8
Ministry of Economic Development
1,7
Under the current tight monetary conditions, investment activity will decrease by 0.5% in 2026. In 2027 and 2028, taking into account the lags in monetary easing, it is expected that the high growth rates of investment activity will return to 3.8% and 3.3%, respectively.
Ruble to US dollar exchange rate, rub/$
2025 average
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Center of macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecast
97,0
VEB.RF
94,3
Ministry of Economic Development
86,1
Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of science
85,2
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation survey
85,0
*end of 2025, rub./$
In 2026-2028, the nominal exchange rate is projected to gradually weaken (to 92.2 rubles per US dollar on average for 2026 and further to 100.1 rubles per US dollar on average for 2028).